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Bolsonaro atinge 1 milhão de seguidores no Telegram e consolida dianteira contra concorrentes

Criado no início do ano, o canal de Jair Bolsonaro (sem partido) no Telegram acaba de ultrapassar a marca simbólica de 1 milhão de inscritos, o que faz do atual presidente e candidato à reeleição líder absoluto no uso dessa ferramenta de comunicação.

Em comparação,  Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), tem menos de 36 mil usuários em seu canal, criado em junho deste ano.

Já o de Ciro Gomes (PDT) conta com menos de 19 mil membros, embora tenha sido criado bem antes, em março do ano passado. Outros pré-candidatos, como o governador de São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), ainda nem exploram este aplicativo de troca de mensagens.

O abismo nos números a favor de Bolsonaro mostra que o presidente é de longe quem mais tem levado a sério uma plataforma que tem tudo para ser fundamental na campanha do ano que vem.

Na última segunda-feira (4), o Telegram teve um pico de procura em razão do apagão de cerca de sete horas que atingiu o WhatsApp, seu concorrente direto. Num único dia, o presidente ganhou 20 mil inscritos em seu canal.

“Independente do que ocorreu nesse dia, Bolsonaro se destaca porque vem fazendo um esforço contínuo para atrair seus apoiadores para a plataforma”, diz Giulia Tucci, que pesquisa o alcance do Telegram para seu doutorado em ciência da informação na Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).

Segundo dados levantados por ela, com base em informações disponibilizadas pela própria plataforma, cada post do canal de Bolsonaro impacta cerca de 178 mil usuários do Telegram. O presidente faz em média oito publicações por dia, em geral ações de governo de caráter institucional.

Ainda não está claro como será o comportamento do Telegram de Bolsonaro no ano que vem, num contexto de campanha. O uso abertamente político da ferramenta e de outras redes sociais por ele poderá gerar ações de uso da máquina na Justiça Eleitoral.

“A penetração do Telegram cresceu muito. Não é uma ferramenta tão popular como WhatsApp, e imagino que nem venha a ser. Mas está se consolidando rapidamente como uma opção”, afirma a pesquisadora.

O salto no canal de Bolsonaro foi de mais de 650% desde 10 de janeiro. Apenas nos últimos 90 dias, o aumento foi de 30% no número de usuários.

A cada dia, o canal do presidente ganha em média quase 3.700 inscritos. O de Lula, em comparação, registra 300 novos adeptos diariamente, e o de Ciro, apenas 30.

“O Telegram guarda muitas semelhanças com o que foi o WhatsApp em 2018, embora dificilmente terá o mesmo impacto, até porque a realidade da legislação eleitoral mudou”, diz Diogo Rais, professor de direito eleitoral na Universidade Mackenzie e fundador do Instituto Liberdade Digital, que tem analisado os dados de Tucci junto com a pesquisadora Samara Castro.

Em 2018, o WhatsApp era em larga medida uma terra sem lei, e nem escritório tinha no Brasil. Como mostraram reportagens da Folha na época, foi muito usado para a divulgação de notícias falsas, a maior parte para beneficiar Bolsonaro.

Desde então, a rede social pertencente ao Facebook ajustou sua conduta e tem colaborado com a Justiça Eleitoral para minimizar seu papel na disseminação de desinformação. Limitou grupos e passou a identificar conteúdo encaminhado e a restringir as possibilidades de compartilhamento.

Já o Telegram, de origem russa, é impenetrável e não conta com os limites implantados por outras redes. Também não mantém escritório no Brasil e ignora as discussões sobre o papel das redes sociais na eleição promovidas pelo TSE, como o Programa de Enfrentamento à Desinformação.

De acordo com a assessoria da corte, as tentativas de contato com a plataforma não tiveram sucesso.

“A estratégia do programa será celebrar parcerias com entidades da sociedade civil, instituições de ensino e empresas que realizam pesquisas e monitoramento de grupos públicos em plataformas não parceiras, com o objetivo de identificar e responder à desinformação contra o processo eleitoral que circula nessas redes”, afirma o TSE, em nota enviada à reportagem.

Um diferencial alardeado pelo Telegram é a amplitude dos seus grupos. Enquanto o WhatsApp limita a 256 membros, o Telegram admite fóruns de discussão com até 200 mil inscritos. Entre conservadores, diversos foram criados para debater o voto impresso, por exemplo.

Já canais como o de Bolsonaro, que funcionam basicamente como listas de transmissão, não têm limite.

“O Telegram é um espaço onde qualquer conteúdo é considerado bem-vindo, e onde a Justiça não atua. É um lugar imune ao próprio Estado brasileiro”, afirma Rais.

Por isso, diz ele, a ferramenta está muito alinhada ao discurso do Bolsonaro, de defesa absoluta da liberdade de expressão.

Não por acaso, há aumentos repentinos de acesso ao canal do presidente sempre que ele tem uma fala ou ação de impacto. Apenas no dia 7 de setembro, quando fez dois discursos de teor golpista, em Brasília e São Paulo, o Telegram de Bolsonaro ganhou 25 mil novos seguidores.

O aumento na popularidade do Telegram no Brasil tem sido rápido, como mostram estatísticas levantadas por Tucci.

Em 2018, apenas 15% dos celulares no Brasil tinham o aplicativo instalado, número que cresceu para 45% atualmente. O WhatsApp ainda é soberano, estando em virtualmente todos os aparelhos no país.

Além disso, 45% dos usuários do Telegram acessam o aplicativo todos os dias, ou quase diariamente.

A dianteira de Bolsonaro no canal é algo que já começa a incomodar seus prováveis adversários diretos na eleição do ano que vem.

O PT diz que considera o Telegram uma ferramenta prioritária para a candidatura de Lula, e que está pensando em estratégias para aumentar rapidamente o número de adeptos.

“Estamos pedindo para nossos militantes, filiados e simpatizantes se cadastrarem no Telegram e no WhatsApp conjuntamente. Como mostrou o apagão recente que tivemos, é importante ter acesso a mais de uma rede”, diz o secretário de Comunicação petista, Jilmar Tatto.

No dia do apagão, o canal de Lula ganhou cerca de 1.100 usuários, um dos maiores aumentos que já registrou em 24 horas.

De acordo com Tatto, a ideia é produzir conteúdo exclusivo para a plataforma. “Nossa avaliação é que o Telegram vai crescer muito ainda, até por não haver a mesma política de filtros do WhatsApp. É uma rede mais solta, digamos assim”, afirma.

Procurada, a assessoria de Ciro não se manifestou.

Para o professor Rais, é inevitável que a forte atuação de Bolsonaro no Telegram provoque um certo efeito manada em seus concorrentes. “Em 2018, todo mundo correu para o WhatsApp porque tinha um candidato que era campeão no uso dessa rede, o Bolsonaro. Isso agora certamente vai ocorrer com o Telegram também”, diz.

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